Bush and Kerry
Does Bush and Kerry Flip Flop on their issues?
posted by Sophia Post @ 5:50 PM
6 comments
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Going into Thursday night's first debate with President George Bush, Sen. John Kerry has a huge amount riding on whether he can toss off the flip-flop image he's been so effectively saddled with by the Bush campaign.
Working in Kerry's advantage, of course, is that in such debates rhetoric typically wins out over substance. Punchy delivery and steel-hard resolve in Kerry's voice could undo a lot of damage.
In turn, a good debate performance would bring viewers back for a second and a third debate and, ideally, roust them to go out and vote on election day, leading to a heavy voter turnout that could lift Kerry into the White House. So the Democrats are hoping.
By contrast, as the leading candidate, as well as a sitting president, Bush would be pleased with a low turnout for the debate, which airs at 9 p.m. from the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla.
And here Bush would appear to have the advantage. For all the hoopla and blather over the debates and their role in elections, viewership has been in a slide for years. They appear simply to matter less and less to voters.
Indeed, Kerry could perform brilliantly on Thursday night and in the following debates and still fail to persuade any great block of voters.
From 1976 through 1992, over the span of five elections, 11 presidential debates averaged 67.35 million TV viewers, according Nielsen data.
But going forward those numbers tumbled. In the five total presidential debates in 1996 and 2000, an average of only 38.86 million viewers watched on TV, despite expanded coverage on the cable news networks.
The lowest numbers were reached in 1996 when Bill Clinton debated Bob Dole, when 36.1 million tuned in for the first debate and 36.3 million for the second.
That low turnout wasn't all that surprising. Dole was running a terrible campaign, which was clear by then, and Clinton was assured of reelection.
But interestingly, the debates in 2000 between Al Gore and Bush didn't do all that much better, with the first drawing 46.6 million, a sizable improvement, but the second and third pulling only 37.6 million and 37.7 million. Considering how contentious that election was, one might assume far more would have watched the debates.
Though Kerry has a history of pulling himself back into a race after one fumble or another, the Massachusetts senator cannot afford to depend on the “Comeback Kerry” mentality that carried him to victory through the primaries.
He must debate not just well but brilliantly. He needs enough of a victory to push up viewership for the following two debates, and significantly.
Thursday’s debate will focus on foreign policy, and as The Washington Post noted yesterday, Bush’s debate history shows his themes will mirror those he has emphasized on the campaign trail.
Kerry won the debate hands down. Bush looked like a robot...couldn't think for himself
Greetings from Kabul!
>
> Thanks to many of you for your messages of good luck and concern over
> the last several weeks. I apologize for my total lapse in
> correspondence, but I haven't been able to spend much time at my desk.
> This despite the fact that the Embassy has been on lockdown for five
> weeks and I haven't left the compound except for official meetings in
> that entire time. And after the workday ends, we've had dust storms and
> rocket attacks and bombings and midnight trips to the bunker, but much
> much more than that, we have been here to witness the dawn of a new era
> in Afghanistan. This is the hardest thing I have ever done, but it would
> be impossible to put into words how much it has meant to me. To say it
> was life-changing seems trite and insufficient. Forget what you hear
> about ink problems and voter fraud. I was there and what happened in
> Afghanistan on Saturday truly was historic and truly reflected the will
> of the people. It was an experience I will treasure for the rest of my
> life.
>
> I got to be an observer and spent eleven hours running around the city
> in Level IV body armor with a close protection detail and CAT team. And
> what I saw was inspiring. The Afghan people were willing to risk
> anything to cast their votes...especially the women. It was deeply
> moving to see the women rally around each other, making sure each had
> the chance to participate. I saw blind ladies voting with the help of
> their granddaughters. Women on crutches and in wheelchairs crawl on
> their hands and knees to make it up the stairs into the polling centers.
> I saw women in burqas threaten male policemen with violence when they
> were told their polling center had run out of ballots and wait hours in
> a freezing cold dust storm for the news ones to arrive.
> My interpreters had to scold me as I kept breaking down in tears and
> wanting to hug the voters.
>
> In each female polling station, I felt a warmth and sisterhood I have
> rarely seen anywhere in the world. Pashtun, Hazara, and Tajik ladies
> lined up together chatting freely about which candidate they supported.
> Laughter and smiles abounded. Pregnant women were affectionately
> escorted to the head of long lines. One such lady who was expecting her
> fourth child at the age of 22 told me without being asked that she had
> voted for Mr. Karzai because she believed Mr. Qanooni would bring the
> burqa back. The fact that she argued this wrapped in a burqa herself
> didn't seem a contradiction to her.
>
> Three of the female polling centers I visited were in mosques. Afghan
> women are barred from visiting a mosque at any time, but none seemed to
> think it was an issue on Saturday. With typical Afghan practicality,
> they had simply moved the Koran and rolled the carpets into the corners
> and that was that. At one such site in a very poor neighborhood on the
> outskirts of Western Kabul, a young mullah announced to me in halting
> English that he was proud the women were voting in his mosque. He said
> he was an Islamic Law student at Kabul University and that through his
> sharia studies he knew better than most that there was a place for women
> in Islam, as well as place for them in its mosques. He also thanked me
> as a foreigner for helping his country find peace and offered his
> assistance in whatever way I may require. Tears ran down my face during
> that speech as well.
>
> And in the 15-odd polling centers I visited all across the city, that
> "thank you" to the international community was universal. When I
> introduced myself at each site as a representative of the American
> Embassy, the smiles got bigger and the welcome warmer. Afghans, men and
> women alike, saw it as an invitation to tell me their opinions of what
> was going wrong and what was going right in their county. Occasionally
> coupled with criticism (Afghans are a delightfully honest and direct
> people), it was consistently appreciative and positive.
>
> And most importantly, shockingly, no one died trying to vote in
> Afghanistan on Saturday. There was not even one confirmed attack on a
> polling stations anywhere in the country. Not even in the Taliban
> heartland along the Pakistani border. But it is important to note that
> despite Gen. Barno's security blanket on the country, the credit for the
> peace on election day must be laid firmly at the feet of the Afghan
> people themselves. Afghans are not a people to tolerate a government,
> military or idea that they don't support fully. I believe that the fact
> the Taliban were not able to act is proof positive that the Afghan
> people are tired of fighting. As the ladies in the polling stations told
> me, they want to see their daughters learn to read. They want to see
> their sons grow to manhood and their husbands come home from fighting.
> The women of Afghanistan have finally spoken and their voices ring
> loudly in the quiet over Afghanistan today.
>
> Please forgive the sloppy grammar and disjointed message, but I thought
> it might be interesting for some of you as a quick counterpoint to the
> news reports focusing on ink malfunction and allegations of fraud and,
> in my humble opinion, entirely missing the point.
>
> Warmest wishes to you all!
>
> Jayne
>
>
No More Miss America Pageantry for ABC...
sad day for America
Kerry is the worst candidate the Demotratic party could have chosen. I feel, he is like a puppet, going in the direction his strings of popularity pull him. He is a liar and deceiver and does these things with total disregard of future harm. I fear what irreversible damage will come to my country if he manages to be elected. It will be the worst four years of American history and my three children will pay the price forever.
For whoever's mad that Bush won and wants to protest: calm down and get used to hearing the title "Pres. Bush", because most of America sure voted for him! This is not another '00.
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